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Jarun vs Cibalia Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Jarun

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cibalia

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-113.4%0-27.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.6%1-113.4%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.8%2-16.7%2-23.9%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.2%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 40.0% 2.50 -22.0%

Draw 27.4% 33.3% 3.00 -10.7%

Away win 41.4% 40.0% 2.50 +3.5%

Over 2.5 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

Over 3.5 27.7% 29.9% 3.34 -4.5%

BTTS 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Home O1.5 26.4% 38.3% 2.61 -18.7%

Away O1.5 32.0% 43.5% 2.30 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

A 41% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jarun1.0

Cibalia1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JARUN · PPG 1.47

CIBALIA · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Jarun (H) 31.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -22.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.7%

Cibalia (A) 41.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jarun face Cibalia in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jarun a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Cibalia 41%, so Cibalia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Jarun and 1.2 for Cibalia (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jarun are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.20 for Cibalia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Jarun vs Cibalia Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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