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Croatia - First NL
Regular Season - 33
Stadion NK Jarun· Zagreb
Saturday, May 30, 2026
14:00
Jarun
PPG 1.47
1-1
HIT MostLikelyScore
Cibalia
PPG 1.20
Away· +3.5%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
31.2%
Odds: 2.50
EV: -22.0%
Draw
27.4%
Odds: 3.00
EV: -10.7%
Away
41.4%
Odds: 2.50
EV: +3.5%
Model lean:
BTTS
Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
46.5%
Odds: 2.00
-7.0%
Over 3.5
27.7%
Odds: 3.34
-4.5%
BTTS
51.6%
Odds: 1.75
-9.7%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✔
2nd
0-0
✘
3rd
0-1
✘
4th
1-0
✘
5th
0-2
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Jarun
1.00
Cibalia
1.15
Model Suggestion
BTTS
-9.7%
NO VALUE BET
No value bet:
model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV:
Away (+3.5%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED
Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.20)