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Sesvete vs Dugopolje Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:00

Sesvete

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Dugopolje

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+32.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-15.6%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.4%1-19.9%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-18.8%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.6%3-15.2%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-13.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 44.4% 2.25 +32.1%

Draw 24.9% 35.7% 2.80 -18.2%

Away win 16.3% 33.3% 3.00 -30.7%

Over 2.5 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

Over 3.5 26.6% 25.0% 4.00 +3.8%

BTTS 43.7% 52.4% 1.91 -16.5%

Home O1.5 48.9% 39.8% 2.51 +22.7%

Away O1.5 16.7% 31.4% 3.18 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.7%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 2–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sesvete1.8

Dugopolje0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SESVETE · PPG 1.99

DUGOPOLJE · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sesvete (H) 58.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +32.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -18.2%

Dugopolje (A) 16.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -30.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sesvete face Dugopolje in Croatia - First NL on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sesvete a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Dugopolje 16%, so Sesvete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sesvete and 0.6 for Dugopolje (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sesvete are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.25 for Dugopolje. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Sesvete vs Dugopolje Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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