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Opatija vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:30

Opatija

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

UPCOMING

Hrvace

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.8%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.6%1-24.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.9%3-16.0%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 57.8% 1.73 -5.2%

Draw 23.7% 29.4% 3.40 -11.7%

Away win 21.5% 24.4% 4.10 -7.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 31.7% 28.6% 3.50 +10.9%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 52.4% 1.91 +6.6%

Away O1.5 25.1% 26.7% 3.75 -3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Opatija1.8

Hrvace0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OPATIJA · PPG 1.54

HRVACE · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Opatija (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -5.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.7%

Hrvace (A) 21.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Opatija face Hrvace in Croatia - First NL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Opatija a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Hrvace 22%, so Opatija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Opatija and 0.9 for Hrvace (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Opatija are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.82 for Hrvace. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +14.7%.

Opatija vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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