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Mladost Ždralovi vs Sesvete Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:00

Mladost Ždralovi

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Sesvete

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.4%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.4%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.2%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.5%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 44.4% 2.25 +2.4%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 28.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

Away O1.5 29.9% 33.3% 3.00 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost Ždralovi1.5

Sesvete1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST ŽDRALOVI · PPG 1.42

SESVETE · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mladost Ždralovi (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +2.4%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Sesvete (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost Ždralovi face Sesvete in Croatia - First NL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost Ždralovi a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Sesvete 28%, so Mladost Ždralovi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mladost Ždralovi and 1.0 for Sesvete (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost Ždralovi are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.50 for Sesvete. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Mladost Ždralovi vs Sesvete Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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