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Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs HNK Cibalia Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:30

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

HNK Cibalia

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-110.2%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-17.9%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.3%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 40.0% 2.50 +11.3%

Draw 32.0% 37.0% 2.70 -13.6%

Away win 23.5% 36.4% 2.75 -21.2%

Over 2.5 37.8% 42.0% 2.38 -10.0%

Over 3.5 18.0% 22.2% 4.50 -11.4%

BTTS 43.7% 51.3% 1.95 -14.8%

Home O1.5 35.0% 35.7% 2.80 -2.0%

Away O1.5 18.2% 32.9% 3.04 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.7%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 17.1%

#3 1–1✓ 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bsk Bijelo Brdo1.2

HNK Cibalia0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BSK BIJELO BRDO · PPG 1.92

HNK CIBALIA · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bsk Bijelo Brdo (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +11.3%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.6%

HNK Cibalia (A) 23.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bsk Bijelo Brdo face HNK Cibalia in Croatia - First NL on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bsk Bijelo Brdo a 45% chance, the draw 32% and HNK Cibalia 24%, so Bsk Bijelo Brdo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bsk Bijelo Brdo and 0.7 for HNK Cibalia (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bsk Bijelo Brdo are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.30 for HNK Cibalia. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs HNK Cibalia Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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