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HNK Cibalia vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

HNK Cibalia

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Dubrava Zagreb

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.4%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-110.2%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.9%3-16.0%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-14.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 69.4% 1.44 -19.4%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 21.7% 16.7% 6.00 +18.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Over 3.5 31.2% 36.4% 2.75 -14.2%

BTTS 50.9% 54.1% 1.85 -5.8%

Home O1.5 54.9% 61.7% 1.62 -11.1%

Away O1.5 17.9% 23.1% 4.33 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.9%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 2–1✓ 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Cibalia1.9

Dubrava Zagreb0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK CIBALIA · PPG 2.01

DUBRAVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

HNK Cibalia (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -19.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Dubrava Zagreb (A) 21.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Cibalia face Dubrava Zagreb in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Cibalia a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Dubrava Zagreb 22%, so HNK Cibalia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for HNK Cibalia and 0.8 for Dubrava Zagreb (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Cibalia are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.25 for Dubrava Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 2-1.

HNK Cibalia vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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