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Croatia Zmijavci vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

Croatia Zmijavci

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hrvace

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-18.9%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.6%1-112.4%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-18.7%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 23.4% — — —

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 25.6% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 39.4% — — —

Away O1.5 22.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Croatia Zmijavci1.4

Hrvace0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CROATIA ZMIJAVCI · PPG 1.21

HRVACE · PPG 0.99

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Croatia Zmijavci (H) 50.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hrvace (A) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Croatia Zmijavci face Hrvace in Croatia - First NL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Croatia Zmijavci a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Hrvace 23%, so Croatia Zmijavci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Croatia Zmijavci and 0.8 for Hrvace (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Croatia Zmijavci are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.99 for Hrvace. This match finished 3-0.

Croatia Zmijavci vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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