Today / Croatia - First NL / HNK Cibalia vs Orijent 1919

HNK Cibalia vs Orijent 1919 Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 17:30

HNK Cibalia

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Orijent 1919

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.2%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.1%1-111.0%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.3%3-15.8%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 22.8% 29.4% 3.40 -13.5%

Over 2.5 52.7% 47.6% 2.10 +10.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.7% 3.75 +18.5%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Cibalia1.8

Orijent 19190.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK CIBALIA · PPG 2.18

ORIJENT 1919 · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

HNK Cibalia (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Orijent 1919 (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Cibalia face Orijent 1919 in Croatia - First NL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Cibalia a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Orijent 1919 23%, so HNK Cibalia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for HNK Cibalia and 0.9 for Orijent 1919 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Cibalia are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.95 for Orijent 1919. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.8%.

HNK Cibalia vs Orijent 1919 Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions