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Jadran LP vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:00

Jadran LP

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Dubrava Zagreb

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+17.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.5%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-110.5%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-16.3%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

Draw 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -13.8%

Away win 21.7% 28.6% 3.50 -14.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 32.6% 28.6% 3.50 +14.1%

BTTS 53.9% 54.6% 1.83 -1.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 47.6% 2.10 +17.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 29.4% 3.40 -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.9%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jadran LP1.9

Dubrava Zagreb0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JADRAN LP · PPG 1.42

DUBRAVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jadran LP (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +4.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.8%

Dubrava Zagreb (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jadran LP face Dubrava Zagreb in Croatia - First NL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jadran LP a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Dubrava Zagreb 22%, so Jadran LP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Jadran LP and 0.9 for Dubrava Zagreb (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jadran LP are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.04 for Dubrava Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.3%.

Jadran LP vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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