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Sesvete vs Karlovac 1919 Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:30

Sesvete

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Karlovac 1919

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.3%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-110.8%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.3%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 51.3% 1.95 +7.2%

Draw 23.5% 33.3% 3.00 -17.7%

Away win 21.5% 28.6% 3.50 -14.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 51.3% 1.95 -2.1%

Over 3.5 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -2.3%

BTTS 48.1% 54.1% 1.85 -11.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 57.8% 1.73 -15.6%

Away O1.5 17.9% 25.0% 4.00 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.1%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sesvete1.7

Karlovac 19190.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SESVETE · PPG 1.79

KARLOVAC 1919 · PPG 0.97

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sesvete (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +7.2%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.7%

Karlovac 1919 (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sesvete face Karlovac 1919 in Croatia - First NL on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sesvete a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Karlovac 1919 22%, so Sesvete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sesvete and 0.7 for Karlovac 1919 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sesvete are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.97 for Karlovac 1919. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Sesvete vs Karlovac 1919 Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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