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Dugopolje vs Karlovac 1919 Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:00

Dugopolje

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Karlovac 1919

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.3%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.7%1-111.0%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.7%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Draw 24.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Away win 22.0% 28.6% 3.50 -13.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 30.7% 26.7% 3.75 +15.1%

BTTS 51.9% 52.4% 1.91 -0.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 48.3% 2.07 +3.3%

Away O1.5 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.9%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dugopolje1.8

Karlovac 19190.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DUGOPOLJE · PPG 1.75

KARLOVAC 1919 · PPG 0.81

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dugopolje (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +7.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Karlovac 1919 (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dugopolje face Karlovac 1919 in Croatia - First NL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dugopolje a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Karlovac 1919 22%, so Dugopolje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dugopolje and 0.9 for Karlovac 1919 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dugopolje are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.81 for Karlovac 1919. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.6%.

Dugopolje vs Karlovac 1919 Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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