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San Carlos vs Puntarenas FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 22:00

San Carlos

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Puntarenas FC

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-19.8%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-112.9%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-18.6%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.0%3-13.8%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 47.6% 2.10 -4.9%

Draw 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

Away win 27.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 50.0% 2.00 -10.4%

Over 3.5 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -7.6%

BTTS 49.2% 57.8% 1.73 -14.9%

Home O1.5 37.3% 47.6% 2.10 -21.7%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Carlos1.3

Puntarenas FC1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN CARLOS · PPG 1.54

PUNTARENAS FC · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Carlos (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.9%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.3%

Puntarenas FC (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Carlos face Puntarenas FC in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Carlos a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Puntarenas FC 27%, so San Carlos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for San Carlos and 1.0 for Puntarenas FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Carlos are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.95 for Puntarenas FC. This match finished 1-2.

San Carlos vs Puntarenas FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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