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Perez Zeledon vs CS Cartagines Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 02:00

Perez Zeledon

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

CS Cartagines

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+25.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.4%0-28.2%0-34.8%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.4%1-111.1%1-29.6%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.7%2-16.5%2-25.7%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.5%3-12.6%3-22.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 28.2% 3.55 +3.5%

Draw 25.2% 31.3% 3.20 -11.6%

Away win 45.1% 51.3% 1.95 -12.1%

Over 2.5 61.2% 48.8% 2.05 +25.5%

Over 3.5 37.3% 27.4% 3.65 +36.1%

BTTS 58.5% 55.6% 1.80 +5.3%

Home O1.5 32.6% 31.3% 3.20 +4.3%

Away O1.5 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perez Zeledon1.2

CS Cartagines1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PEREZ ZELEDON · PPG 1.36

CS CARTAGINES · PPG 1.30

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Perez Zeledon (H) 29.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +3.5%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.6%

CS Cartagines (A) 45.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perez Zeledon face CS Cartagines in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perez Zeledon a 30% chance, the draw 25% and CS Cartagines 45%, so CS Cartagines are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Perez Zeledon and 1.7 for CS Cartagines (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perez Zeledon are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.30 for CS Cartagines. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.1%.

Perez Zeledon vs CS Cartagines Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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