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CS Herediano vs Sporting San Jose Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 02:00

CS Herediano

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Sporting San Jose

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-111.9%0-25.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.4%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-17.6%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 47.6% 2.10 -21.9%

Draw 28.0% 34.5% 2.90 -11.3%

Away win 34.8% 31.3% 3.20 +11.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 44.4% 2.25 -3.9%

Over 3.5 20.6% 25.0% 4.00 -10.6%

BTTS 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 42.0% 2.38 -27.2%

Away O1.5 25.3% 30.8% 3.25 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 12.8%

#4 1–0 14.4%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CS Herediano1.1

Sporting San Jose0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CS HEREDIANO · PPG 1.45

SPORTING SAN JOSE · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CS Herediano (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -21.9%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.3%

Sporting San Jose (A) 34.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CS Herediano face Sporting San Jose in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CS Herediano a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Sporting San Jose 35%, so CS Herediano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for CS Herediano and 0.9 for Sporting San Jose (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CS Herediano are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.06 for Sporting San Jose. This match finished 0-3.

CS Herediano vs Sporting San Jose Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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