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Perez Zeledon vs LD Alajuelense Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 02:00

Perez Zeledon

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

LD Alajuelense

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-113.3%0-28.8%0-33.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.8%1-113.0%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.8%2-16.3%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 26.7% 3.75 +3.2%

Draw 27.4% 30.8% 3.25 -6.6%

Away win 44.5% 55.6% 1.80 -19.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 55.6% 1.80 -19.4%

Over 3.5 25.6% 36.4% 2.75 -17.8%

BTTS 48.5% 57.8% 1.73 -16.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

Away O1.5 40.9% 54.6% 1.83 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.5%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perez Zeledon1.0

LD Alajuelense1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PEREZ ZELEDON · PPG 1.40

LD ALAJUELENSE · PPG 1.69

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.35, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Perez Zeledon (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +3.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.6%

LD Alajuelense (A) 44.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perez Zeledon face LD Alajuelense in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perez Zeledon a 28% chance, the draw 27% and LD Alajuelense 45%, so LD Alajuelense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Perez Zeledon and 1.3 for LD Alajuelense (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perez Zeledon are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.69 for LD Alajuelense. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Perez Zeledon vs LD Alajuelense Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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