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CS Herediano vs LD Alajuelense Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 00:00

CS Herediano

PPG 1.62 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

LD Alajuelense

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-111.8%0-25.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.2%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-17.6%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 45.5% 2.20 -13.8%

Draw 32.8% 30.3% 3.30 +8.2%

Away win 28.0% 33.9% 2.95 -10.4%

Over 2.5 37.0% 46.5% 2.15 -20.4%

Over 3.5 21.1% 25.6% 3.90 -10.6%

BTTS 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

Home O1.5 30.2% 43.5% 2.30 -30.5%

Away O1.5 26.2% 34.5% 2.90 -14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.7%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CS Herediano1.1

LD Alajuelense0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CS HEREDIANO · PPG 1.62

LD ALAJUELENSE · PPG 1.42

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CS Herediano (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -13.8%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +8.2%

LD Alajuelense (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CS Herediano face LD Alajuelense in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CS Herediano a 39% chance, the draw 33% and LD Alajuelense 28%, so CS Herediano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for CS Herediano and 0.9 for LD Alajuelense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CS Herediano are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.42 for LD Alajuelense. This match finished 0-3.

CS Herediano vs LD Alajuelense Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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