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CS Cartagines vs CS Herediano Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

CS Cartagines

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

CS Herediano

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+24.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.8%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-110.6%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-15.9%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 45.5% 2.20 +24.1%

Draw 22.2% 35.7% 2.80 -22.7%

Away win 21.4% 33.3% 3.00 -21.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 45.5% 2.20 +17.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 25.0% 4.00 +26.0%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 53.6% 42.0% 2.38 +27.6%

Away O1.5 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–0✓ 12.9%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CS Cartagines1.8

CS Herediano0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CS CARTAGINES · PPG 2.09

CS HEREDIANO · PPG 1.24

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CS Cartagines (H) 56.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +24.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -22.7%

CS Herediano (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

CS Cartagines face CS Herediano in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CS Cartagines a 56% chance, the draw 22% and CS Herediano 21%, so CS Cartagines are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for CS Cartagines and 0.8 for CS Herediano (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CS Cartagines are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.24 for CS Herediano. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +44.4%. This match finished 1-0.

CS Cartagines vs CS Herediano Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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