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Puntarenas FC vs Deportivo Saprissa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 02:00

Puntarenas FC

PPG 1.18 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Deportivo Saprissa

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-19.0%0-27.2%0-33.9%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.2%1-111.5%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.6%2-17.3%2-25.9%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.9%3-13.1%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 29.4% 3.40 +8.5%

Draw 28.2% 27.8% 3.60 +0.9%

Away win 39.9% 52.6% 1.90 -24.2%

Over 2.5 52.1% 59.9% 1.67 -13.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 37.0% 2.70 -12.8%

BTTS 53.1% 62.5% 1.60 -15.0%

Home O1.5 37.0% 38.5% 2.60 -3.8%

Away O1.5 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob53.1%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puntarenas FC1.3

Deportivo Saprissa1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PUNTARENAS FC · PPG 1.18

DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Puntarenas FC (H) 31.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +8.5%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.9%

Deportivo Saprissa (A) 39.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puntarenas FC face Deportivo Saprissa in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puntarenas FC a 32% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Saprissa 40%, so Deportivo Saprissa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Puntarenas FC and 1.6 for Deportivo Saprissa (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puntarenas FC are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.50 for Deportivo Saprissa. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Puntarenas FC vs Deportivo Saprissa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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