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LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 00:00

LD Alajuelense

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

San Carlos

PPG 0.74 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-14.1%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.6%1-18.7%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.4%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-15.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 71.4% 1.40 -9.4%

Draw 20.9% 23.8% 4.20 -7.3%

Away win 14.4% 14.3% 7.00 +0.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 36.4% 2.75 -13.4%

BTTS 47.2% 54.6% 1.83 -13.6%

Home O1.5 59.6% 67.6% 1.48 -11.8%

Away O1.5 17.3% 23.1% 4.33 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 65% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.3%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 3–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LD Alajuelense2.1

San Carlos0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LD ALAJUELENSE · PPG 2.21

SAN CARLOS · PPG 0.74

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

LD Alajuelense (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -9.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.3%

San Carlos (A) 14.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

LD Alajuelense face San Carlos in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LD Alajuelense a 65% chance, the draw 21% and San Carlos 14%, so LD Alajuelense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for LD Alajuelense and 0.6 for San Carlos (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LD Alajuelense are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 0.74 for San Carlos. This match finished 0-1.

LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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