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San Carlos vs CS Herediano Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 02:00

San Carlos

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

CS Herediano

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-112.2%0-26.6%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.4%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.8%2-17.4%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.5%3-12.7%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 27.0% 3.70 +33.6%

Draw 33.7% 32.3% 3.10 +4.5%

Away win 30.1% 51.3% 1.95 -41.3%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

BTTS 47.7% 51.8% 1.93 -7.9%

Home O1.5 30.2% 28.6% 3.50 +5.7%

Away O1.5 34.3% 45.5% 2.20 -24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.7%

D 34% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Carlos1.1

CS Herediano1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN CARLOS · PPG 1.25

CS HEREDIANO · PPG 1.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.02, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Carlos (H) 36.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +33.6%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +4.5%

CS Herediano (A) 30.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -41.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Carlos face CS Herediano in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Carlos a 36% chance, the draw 34% and CS Herediano 30%, so San Carlos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for San Carlos and 1.1 for CS Herediano (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Carlos are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.44 for CS Herediano. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.2%.

San Carlos vs CS Herediano Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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