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Deportivo Saprissa vs CS Cartagines Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 02:00

Deportivo Saprissa

PPG 2.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

CS Cartagines

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-19.9%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.4%3-16.6%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

Away win 22.1% 25.3% 3.95 -7.6%

Over 2.5 53.7% 54.1% 1.85 -0.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Away O1.5 23.6% 32.3% 3.10 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Saprissa2.0

CS Cartagines0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA · PPG 2.27

CS CARTAGINES · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Saprissa (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -0.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.1%

CS Cartagines (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Saprissa face CS Cartagines in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Saprissa a 55% chance, the draw 23% and CS Cartagines 22%, so Deportivo Saprissa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Deportivo Saprissa and 0.9 for CS Cartagines (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Saprissa are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.09 for CS Cartagines. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.4%.

Deportivo Saprissa vs CS Cartagines Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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