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LD Alajuelense vs Puntarenas FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 22:00

LD Alajuelense

PPG 2.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Puntarenas FC

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.4%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.1%1-19.2%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-16.7%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-15.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 71.4% 1.40 -19.2%

Draw 25.1% 23.8% 4.20 +3.3%

Away win 17.2% 14.3% 7.00 +12.2%

Over 2.5 51.3% 55.6% 1.80 -7.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 32.3% 3.10 -1.4%

BTTS 47.7% 50.0% 2.00 -4.6%

Home O1.5 59.8% 64.5% 1.55 -7.3%

Away O1.5 17.2% 21.1% 4.75 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LD Alajuelense2.1

Puntarenas FC0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LD ALAJUELENSE · PPG 2.08

PUNTARENAS FC · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

LD Alajuelense (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -19.2%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +3.3%

Puntarenas FC (A) 17.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

LD Alajuelense face Puntarenas FC in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LD Alajuelense a 58% chance, the draw 25% and Puntarenas FC 17%, so LD Alajuelense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for LD Alajuelense and 0.8 for Puntarenas FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LD Alajuelense are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.11 for Puntarenas FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.0%.

LD Alajuelense vs Puntarenas FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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