League Two
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 89 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
37.1%
1X2
33/89
50.6%
O/U 2.5
45/89
50.6%
BTTS
45/89
48.3%
Exact score
43/89
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
24
Settled
45.8%
Hit rate
11/24
2.06
Avg odds
-6.5%
ROI
-1.6u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=14 57.1% HIT · AVG 1.96 · +10.9% ROI
HOME WIN · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 2.05 · -45.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 2.37 · -41.3% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.85 · -100.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.95 · +195.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-4.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
18
Bets
44%
Hit
-12.1%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
3
Bets
67%
Hit
+57.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 9 PICKS · 1 HIT · 8 MISS
23 AUG Shenzhen 2028 vs Hubei Chufeng Heli Over 2.5 +13% 0–1 MISS23 AUG Xiamen Feilu vs Yichun Grand Tiger Home -18% 0–2 MISS23 AUG Guangzhou Dandelion vs Guizhou Zhucheng BTTS +12% 0–0 MISS23 AUG Langfang Glory City vs Guangdong Mingtu — NO PICK 1–0 —23 AUG Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Jiangxi Liansheng — NO PICK 0–1 —23 AUG Wuhan Three Towns II vs Shangyu Pterosaur — NO PICK 4–0 —22 AUG Xi'an Ronghai vs Rizhao Yuqi Home +1% 0–0 MISS22 AUG Shanghai Port II vs Qingdao Red Lions — NO PICK 2–0 —22 AUG Changchun Xidu vs Dalian Kewei — NO PICK 2–1 —22 AUG Nantong Haimen Codion vs Shandong Taishan II BTTS +1% 2–2 HIT22 AUG Tai'an Tiankuang vs Shanghai Second Home -18% 2–2 MISS22 AUG Dalian Yingbo B vs BIT Home -16% 3–4 MISS19 AUG Nantong Haimen Codion vs Qingdao Red Lions — NO PICK 1–1 —16 AUG Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Langfang Glory City HO1.5 0–1 MISS16 AUG Jiangxi Liansheng vs Xiamen Feilu BTTS +4% 0–2 MISS