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Tai'an Tiankuang vs Shanghai Second Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:00

Tai'an Tiankuang

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Shanghai Second

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.3%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.5%1-111.0%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.9%3-15.6%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 64.5% 1.55 -17.8%

Draw 24.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.8%

Away win 22.4% 18.2% 5.50 +13.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Over 3.5 28.4% 28.6% 3.50 -0.4%

BTTS 49.3% 51.3% 1.95 -3.9%

Home O1.5 48.8% 56.2% 1.78 -13.1%

Away O1.5 22.5% 21.1% 4.75 +4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.3%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tai'an Tiankuang1.7

Shanghai Second0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TAI'AN TIANKUANG · PPG 1.70

SHANGHAI SECOND · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tai'an Tiankuang (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.8%

Shanghai Second (A) 22.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tai'an Tiankuang face Shanghai Second in China - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tai'an Tiankuang a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Shanghai Second 22%, so Tai'an Tiankuang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tai'an Tiankuang and 0.8 for Shanghai Second (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tai'an Tiankuang are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.80 for Shanghai Second. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Tai'an Tiankuang vs Shanghai Second Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions