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Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Jiangxi Liansheng Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:30

Chengdu Rongcheng II

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Jiangxi Liansheng

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-113.8%0-26.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.8%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.8%2-16.6%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 39.2% 2.55 +2.0%

Draw 30.0% 35.1% 2.85 -14.5%

Away win 30.0% 37.0% 2.70 -19.0%

Over 2.5 42.7% 43.5% 2.30 -1.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% 22.0% 4.55 -3.8%

BTTS 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 34.6% 2.89 -11.6%

Away O1.5 27.9% 32.9% 3.04 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.6%

H 40% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 0–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 13.5%

#4 0–1✓ 13.8%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu Rongcheng II1.0

Jiangxi Liansheng1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU RONGCHENG II · PPG 1.30

JIANGXI LIANSHENG · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.00, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu Rongcheng II (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +2.0%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -14.5%

Jiangxi Liansheng (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu Rongcheng II face Jiangxi Liansheng in China - League Two on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu Rongcheng II a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Jiangxi Liansheng 30%, so Chengdu Rongcheng II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Chengdu Rongcheng II and 1.0 for Jiangxi Liansheng (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu Rongcheng II are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.50 for Jiangxi Liansheng. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Jiangxi Liansheng Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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