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Langfang Glory City vs Guangdong Mingtu Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:30

Langfang Glory City

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Guangdong Mingtu

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-112.2%0-26.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.9%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.1%2-17.4%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.6%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 39.2% 2.55 -8.5%

Draw 28.6% 33.9% 2.95 -9.4%

Away win 35.5% 39.2% 2.55 -9.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 43.5% 2.30 +3.0%

Over 3.5 25.6% 22.0% 4.55 +9.9%

BTTS 49.1% 50.0% 2.00 -1.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 35.2% 2.84 -13.1%

Away O1.5 32.7% 32.9% 3.04 -0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–0✓ 12.9%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Langfang Glory City1.1

Guangdong Mingtu1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LANGFANG GLORY CITY · PPG 1.40

GUANGDONG MINGTU · PPG 1.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Langfang Glory City (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -8.5%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.4%

Guangdong Mingtu (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Langfang Glory City face Guangdong Mingtu in China - League Two on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Langfang Glory City a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Guangdong Mingtu 36%, so Langfang Glory City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Langfang Glory City and 1.0 for Guangdong Mingtu (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Langfang Glory City are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Guangdong Mingtu. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Langfang Glory City vs Guangdong Mingtu Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions