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Xi'an Ronghai vs Rizhao Yuqi Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:00

Xi'an Ronghai

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Rizhao Yuqi

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-18.9%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.1%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-17.0%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.6%3-12.9%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 50.0% 2.00 +0.6%

Draw 27.9% 35.7% 2.80 -13.1%

Away win 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Over 2.5 37.3% 42.0% 2.38 -11.2%

Over 3.5 18.2% 21.1% 4.75 -8.1%

BTTS 43.6% 47.6% 2.10 -8.4%

Home O1.5 36.8% 41.7% 2.40 -11.7%

Away O1.5 16.4% 24.4% 4.10 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.6%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.1%

#2 0–0✓ 16.8%

#3 2–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 1–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xi'an Ronghai1.3

Rizhao Yuqi0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

XI'AN RONGHAI · PPG 2.10

RIZHAO YUQI · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Xi'an Ronghai (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +0.6%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.1%

Rizhao Yuqi (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xi'an Ronghai face Rizhao Yuqi in China - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xi'an Ronghai a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Rizhao Yuqi 22%, so Xi'an Ronghai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Xi'an Ronghai and 0.5 for Rizhao Yuqi (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xi'an Ronghai are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.90 for Rizhao Yuqi. This match finished 0-0.

Xi'an Ronghai vs Rizhao Yuqi Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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