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Guangzhou Dandelion vs Guizhou Zhucheng Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:30

Guangzhou Dandelion

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Guizhou Zhucheng

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-111.0%0-27.5%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.3%1-112.7%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.3%2-17.3%2-25.0%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.0%3-12.8%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 27.4% 3.65 +23.7%

Draw 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

Away win 40.3% 51.3% 1.95 -21.4%

Over 2.5 51.9% 43.5% 2.30 +19.4%

Over 3.5 30.9% 21.3% 4.70 +45.2%

BTTS 54.7% 48.8% 2.05 +12.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 24.1% 4.15 +27.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 43.1% 2.32 -4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1 11.0%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangzhou Dandelion1.1

Guizhou Zhucheng1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGZHOU DANDELION · PPG 1.10

GUIZHOU ZHUCHENG · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guangzhou Dandelion (H) 33.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +23.7%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.6%

Guizhou Zhucheng (A) 40.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangzhou Dandelion face Guizhou Zhucheng in China - League Two on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangzhou Dandelion a 34% chance, the draw 26% and Guizhou Zhucheng 40%, so Guizhou Zhucheng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Guangzhou Dandelion and 1.4 for Guizhou Zhucheng (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangzhou Dandelion are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.11 for Guizhou Zhucheng. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +52.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Guangzhou Dandelion vs Guizhou Zhucheng Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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