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Shanghai Port II vs Qingdao Red Lions Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:00

Shanghai Port II

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Qingdao Red Lions

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-18.4%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.2%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.4%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

Draw 27.1% 34.5% 2.90 -12.8%

Away win 24.9% 30.3% 3.30 -10.7%

Over 2.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.8% 4.20 +4.5%

BTTS 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 43.3% 2.31 -7.6%

Away O1.5 22.5% 27.9% 3.58 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0✓ 11.1%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Port II1.4

Qingdao Red Lions0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI PORT II · PPG 1.67

QINGDAO RED LIONS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Port II (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -1.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.8%

Qingdao Red Lions (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Port II face Qingdao Red Lions in China - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Port II a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Qingdao Red Lions 25%, so Shanghai Port II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Shanghai Port II and 0.8 for Qingdao Red Lions (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Port II are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Qingdao Red Lions. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Shanghai Port II vs Qingdao Red Lions Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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