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Shenzhen 2028 vs Hubei Chufeng Heli Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:30

Shenzhen 2028

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hubei Chufeng Heli

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+13.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.2%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.8%1-19.1%1-25.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.0%3-17.0%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-16.2%4+-23.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 62.5% 1.60 -10.7%

Draw 22.2% 27.4% 3.65 -11.4%

Away win 22.0% 21.7% 4.60 +0.7%

Over 2.5 62.8% 55.6% 1.80 +13.0%

Over 3.5 39.4% 32.9% 3.04 +19.8%

BTTS 60.3% 52.4% 1.91 +15.2%

Home O1.5 61.8% 58.5% 1.71 +5.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 25.4% 3.94 +40.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen 20282.2

Hubei Chufeng Heli1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN 2028 · PPG 2.30

HUBEI CHUFENG HELI · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen 2028 (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -10.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.4%

Hubei Chufeng Heli (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen 2028 face Hubei Chufeng Heli in China - League Two on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen 2028 a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Hubei Chufeng Heli 22%, so Shenzhen 2028 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Shenzhen 2028 and 1.2 for Hubei Chufeng Heli (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen 2028 are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.50 for Hubei Chufeng Heli. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +40.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Shenzhen 2028 vs Hubei Chufeng Heli Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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