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Xiamen Feilu vs Yichun Grand Tiger Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:30

Xiamen Feilu

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Yichun Grand Tiger

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-18.3%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.5%1-111.6%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-18.1%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-13.8%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 61.0% 1.64 -17.7%

Draw 26.5% 31.3% 3.20 -9.1%

Away win 23.4% 19.6% 5.10 +11.6%

Over 2.5 42.7% 44.4% 2.25 -3.9%

Over 3.5 20.6% 22.7% 4.40 -5.6%

BTTS 47.6% 45.5% 2.20 +4.7%

Home O1.5 39.5% 48.5% 2.06 -18.6%

Away O1.5 16.7% 19.4% 5.15 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.5%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 12.9%

#4 1–1 11.6%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xiamen Feilu1.4

Yichun Grand Tiger0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

XIAMEN FEILU · PPG 1.70

YICHUN GRAND TIGER · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Xiamen Feilu (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -17.7%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.1%

Yichun Grand Tiger (A) 23.4%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xiamen Feilu face Yichun Grand Tiger in China - League Two on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xiamen Feilu a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Yichun Grand Tiger 23%, so Xiamen Feilu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Xiamen Feilu and 0.6 for Yichun Grand Tiger (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xiamen Feilu are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.90 for Yichun Grand Tiger. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Xiamen Feilu vs Yichun Grand Tiger Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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