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Jiangxi Liansheng vs Xiamen Feilu Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:30

Jiangxi Liansheng

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Xiamen Feilu

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.4%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.2%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.7%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 22.8% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 53.8% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 26.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.8%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jiangxi Liansheng1.7

Xiamen Feilu0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JIANGXI LIANSHENG · PPG 1.70

XIAMEN FEILU · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jiangxi Liansheng (H) 53.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Xiamen Feilu (A) 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jiangxi Liansheng face Xiamen Feilu in China - League Two on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jiangxi Liansheng a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Xiamen Feilu 23%, so Jiangxi Liansheng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jiangxi Liansheng and 0.9 for Xiamen Feilu (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jiangxi Liansheng are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.90 for Xiamen Feilu.

Jiangxi Liansheng vs Xiamen Feilu Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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