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Nantong Haimen Codion vs Shandong Taishan II Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:00

Nantong Haimen Codion

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shandong Taishan II

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-112.1%0-27.4%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.8%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.9%2-17.2%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.1%3-12.6%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 43.5% 2.30 -17.0%

Draw 27.3% 35.7% 2.80 -14.1%

Away win 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

Over 2.5 50.1% 42.6% 2.35 +17.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 22.2% 4.50 +15.9%

BTTS 53.0% 52.4% 1.91 +1.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 37.3% 2.68 -18.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 32.3% 3.10 +15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantong Haimen Codion1.1

Shandong Taishan II1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTONG HAIMEN CODION · PPG 1.30

SHANDONG TAISHAN II · PPG 2.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.13, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nantong Haimen Codion (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -17.0%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.1%

Shandong Taishan II (A) 36.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantong Haimen Codion face Shandong Taishan II in China - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantong Haimen Codion a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Shandong Taishan II 37%, so Shandong Taishan II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Nantong Haimen Codion and 1.2 for Shandong Taishan II (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantong Haimen Codion are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 2.20 for Shandong Taishan II. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Nantong Haimen Codion vs Shandong Taishan II Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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