Today / China - League Two / Changchun Xidu vs Dalian Kewei

Changchun Xidu vs Dalian Kewei Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:00

Changchun Xidu

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Dalian Kewei

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.3%0-121.6%0-29.6%0-32.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.8%1-111.3%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-03.3%2-13.0%2-21.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.6%3-10.5%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 25.0% 4.00 -0.7%

Draw 33.4% 35.7% 2.80 -6.5%

Away win 41.9% 52.4% 1.91 -20.0%

Over 2.5 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% 21.1% 4.75 -8.1%

BTTS 43.6% 46.5% 2.15 -6.3%

Home O1.5 30.1% 22.0% 4.55 +37.0%

Away O1.5 22.8% 43.5% 2.30 -28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.6%

A 42% / xG 0.5-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.3%

#2 0–1 21.6%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 0–2 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changchun Xidu0.5

Dalian Kewei0.9

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGCHUN XIDU · PPG 0.89

DALIAN KEWEI · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.36, combined xG 1.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Changchun Xidu (H) 24.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.7%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -6.5%

Dalian Kewei (A) 41.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changchun Xidu face Dalian Kewei in China - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changchun Xidu a 25% chance, the draw 33% and Dalian Kewei 42%, so Dalian Kewei are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Changchun Xidu and 0.9 for Dalian Kewei (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changchun Xidu are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.20 for Dalian Kewei. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +37.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Changchun Xidu vs Dalian Kewei Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions