League One
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 35 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
45.7%
1X2
16/35
42.9%
O/U 2.5
15/35
42.9%
BTTS
15/35
45.7%
Exact score
16/35
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
18
Settled
38.9%
Hit rate
7/18
1.80
Avg odds
-33.6%
ROI
-6.0u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -28.4% ROI
BTTS · N=5 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.74 · +5.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · -22.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=2 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.27 · -100.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.80 · -100.0% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.85 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-12.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
8
Bets
50%
Hit
-16.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
6
Bets
33%
Hit
-41.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 10 PICKS · 4 HIT · 6 MISS
18 JUL Guangxi H. vs Shaanxi Union — NO PICK 3–0 —18 JUL Nanjing City vs Guangdong GZP BTTS -7% 0–1 MISS18 JUL Meizhou Hakka vs Dalian Kuncheng Over 2.5 +15% 2–0 MISS17 JUL Suzhou Dongwu vs Shenzhen J. AO1.5 0–0 MISS17 JUL S. Gongfu vs Yanbian Longdin Away 0–0 MISS11 JUL Yanbian Longdin vs Suzhou Dongwu Home -12% 3–1 HIT11 JUL Dalian Kuncheng vs Nanjing City BTTS -1% 2–0 MISS11 JUL Shaanxi Union vs Meizhou Hakka Home -19% 4–0 HIT5 JUL Guangxi H. vs Dalian Kuncheng BTTS -3% 3–1 HIT5 JUL Meizhou Hakka vs Changchun Yatai Over 2.5 +11% 1–3 HIT4 JUL Suzhou Dongwu vs Guangdong GZP Away -11% 2–2 MISS4 JUL Shenzhen J. vs Nantong Zhiyun — NO PICK 0–0 —4 JUL Shaanxi Union vs Wuxi Wugou — NO PICK 2–1 —June 2026 // 2 PICKS · 1 HIT · 1 MISS
27 JUN Changchun Yatai vs Guangxi H. BTTS -5% 1–2 HIT27 JUN Dalian Kuncheng vs Shenzhen J. Away +64% 5–4 MISS