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Guangzhou E-Power vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:30

Guangzhou E-Power

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.7%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.7%1-17.0%1-23.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-19.2%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-18.0%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-19.9%4+-25.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Draw 17.3% 25.0% 4.00 -18.5%

Away win 20.2% 16.7% 6.00 +12.7%

Over 2.5 68.2% 63.7% 1.57 +7.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 42.0% 2.38 +7.1%

BTTS 60.8% 58.8% 1.70 +3.4%

Home O1.5 65.8% 69.4% 1.44 -5.3%

Away O1.5 32.6% 26.7% 3.75 +22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.8%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 8.9%

#3 1–1 7.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 3–0✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangzhou E-Power2.6

Changchun Yatai1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGZHOU E-POWER · PPG 2.30

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 2.30 vs 1.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Guangzhou E-Power (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -12.5%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -18.5%

Changchun Yatai (A) 20.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangzhou E-Power face Changchun Yatai in China - League One on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangzhou E-Power a 63% chance, the draw 17% and Changchun Yatai 20%, so Guangzhou E-Power are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Guangzhou E-Power and 1.0 for Changchun Yatai (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangzhou E-Power are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.11 for Changchun Yatai. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Guangzhou E-Power vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions