Today / China - League One / Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Suzhou Dongwu

Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Suzhou Dongwu Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Suzhou Dongwu

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.8%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.0%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 44.4% 2.25 +2.4%

Draw 24.7% 32.3% 3.10 -14.1%

Away win 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 28.6% 3.50 +10.3%

BTTS 54.9% 57.8% 1.73 -5.0%

Home O1.5 43.8% 45.5% 2.20 -3.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 36.4% 2.75 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heilongjiang Lava Spring1.5

Suzhou Dongwu1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HEILONGJIANG LAVA SPRING · PPG 1.00

SUZHOU DONGWU · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +2.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.1%

Suzhou Dongwu (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heilongjiang Lava Spring face Suzhou Dongwu in China - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heilongjiang Lava Spring a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Suzhou Dongwu 30%, so Heilongjiang Lava Spring are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring and 1.1 for Suzhou Dongwu (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heilongjiang Lava Spring are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Suzhou Dongwu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 3-4.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Suzhou Dongwu Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions