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Hebei Kungfu vs Wuxi Wugou Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:30

Hebei Kungfu

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wuxi Wugou

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-113.4%0-28.6%0-33.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.2%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.9%2-16.4%2-24.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 40.0% 2.50 -9.8%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.4% 3.65 +2.9%

BTTS 50.5% 56.5% 1.77 -10.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 40.8% 2.45 -24.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 39.2% 2.55 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.5%

A 37% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 10.2%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 0–1 13.4%

#5 2–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hebei Kungfu1.0

Wuxi Wugou1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HEBEI KUNGFU · PPG 1.20

WUXI WUGOU · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.31, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hebei Kungfu (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Wuxi Wugou (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hebei Kungfu face Wuxi Wugou in China - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hebei Kungfu a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Wuxi Wugou 37%, so Wuxi Wugou are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Hebei Kungfu and 1.3 for Wuxi Wugou (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hebei Kungfu are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.27 for Wuxi Wugou. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Hebei Kungfu vs Wuxi Wugou Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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