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Dalian Huayi vs Nantong Zhiyun Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:00

Dalian Huayi

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nantong Zhiyun

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-114.0%0-27.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.8%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.7%2-16.4%2-23.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.1%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 27.8% 3.60 +9.1%

Draw 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Away win 42.5% 52.4% 1.91 -18.8%

Over 2.5 44.8% 50.0% 2.00 -10.4%

Over 3.5 26.0% 28.6% 3.50 -5.4%

BTTS 49.2% 57.1% 1.75 -13.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

Away O1.5 33.0% 45.5% 2.20 -27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 12.4%

#4 1–0 11.8%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Huayi1.0

Nantong Zhiyun1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN HUAYI · PPG 1.50

NANTONG ZHIYUN · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.18, combined xG 2.09 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Huayi (H) 30.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +9.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Nantong Zhiyun (A) 42.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Huayi face Nantong Zhiyun in China - League One on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Huayi a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Nantong Zhiyun 43%, so Nantong Zhiyun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dalian Huayi and 1.1 for Nantong Zhiyun (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Huayi are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.10 for Nantong Zhiyun. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Dalian Huayi vs Nantong Zhiyun Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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