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Guangxi Hengchen vs Suzhou Dongwu Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Guangxi Hengchen

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Suzhou Dongwu

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-16.2%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.7%1-110.6%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.5%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-15.2%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 66.7% 1.50 -20.2%

Draw 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Away win 22.2% 16.7% 6.00 +19.9%

Over 2.5 50.1% 54.1% 1.85 -7.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.0%

BTTS 47.6% 52.6% 1.90 -9.6%

Home O1.5 48.8% 60.6% 1.65 -19.5%

Away O1.5 17.9% 23.1% 4.33 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 2–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangxi Hengchen1.7

Suzhou Dongwu0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGXI HENGCHEN · PPG 2.33

SUZHOU DONGWU · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guangxi Hengchen (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

Suzhou Dongwu (A) 22.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangxi Hengchen face Suzhou Dongwu in China - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangxi Hengchen a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Suzhou Dongwu 22%, so Guangxi Hengchen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Guangxi Hengchen and 0.7 for Suzhou Dongwu (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangxi Hengchen are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.75 for Suzhou Dongwu. This match finished 3-3.

Guangxi Hengchen vs Suzhou Dongwu Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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