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Changchun Yatai vs Dongguan United Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dongguan United

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+24.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.2%0-22.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.4%1-17.3%1-26.1%1-33.3%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.9%3-16.4%3-25.3%3-32.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-16.3%4+-25.2%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 58.8% 1.70 -15.8%

Draw 21.9% 30.3% 3.30 -16.6%

Away win 28.5% 25.0% 4.00 +8.4%

Over 2.5 67.3% 54.1% 1.85 +24.5%

Over 3.5 46.7% 33.3% 3.00 +40.1%

BTTS 63.2% 60.6% 1.65 +4.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 55.6% 1.80 +17.2%

Away O1.5 48.5% 28.6% 3.50 +69.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.2%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.1%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changchun Yatai2.3

Dongguan United1.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.44

DONGGUAN UNITED · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Changchun Yatai (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -15.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.6%

Dongguan United (A) 28.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changchun Yatai face Dongguan United in China - League One on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changchun Yatai a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Dongguan United 28%, so Changchun Yatai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Changchun Yatai and 1.7 for Dongguan United (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Dongguan United. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +69.8%. This match finished 6-0.

Changchun Yatai vs Dongguan United Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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