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Nantong Zhiyun vs Shaanxi Union Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Nantong Zhiyun

PPG 2.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Shaanxi Union

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-110.7%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.0%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-17.9%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 50.0% 2.00 -4.6%

Draw 27.6% 31.3% 3.20 -7.0%

Away win 24.7% 28.2% 3.55 -7.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

Over 3.5 25.6% 27.4% 3.65 -3.9%

BTTS 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Home O1.5 32.9% 47.6% 2.10 -30.9%

Away O1.5 22.5% 31.3% 3.20 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.9%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantong Zhiyun1.2

Shaanxi Union0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTONG ZHIYUN · PPG 2.62

SHAANXI UNION · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nantong Zhiyun (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -4.6%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.0%

Shaanxi Union (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantong Zhiyun face Shaanxi Union in China - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Shaanxi Union 25%, so Nantong Zhiyun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nantong Zhiyun and 0.8 for Shaanxi Union (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 0.90 for Shaanxi Union. This match finished 4-1.

Nantong Zhiyun vs Shaanxi Union Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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