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Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:30

Nanjing City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Guangxi Hengchen

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.3%0-27.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.0%1-112.9%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.7%2-17.4%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.2%3-12.8%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 30.3% 3.30 +17.5%

Draw 26.8% 31.3% 3.20 -8.5%

Away win 37.6% 48.8% 2.05 -22.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.8% 1.93 -2.5%

Over 3.5 29.0% 30.8% 3.25 -3.5%

BTTS 53.6% 58.8% 1.70 -8.9%

Home O1.5 31.1% 35.7% 2.80 -12.9%

Away O1.5 37.3% 48.8% 2.05 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.6%

A 38% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 10.0%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nanjing City1.1

Guangxi Hengchen1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NANJING CITY · PPG 1.50

GUANGXI HENGCHEN · PPG 1.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nanjing City (H) 35.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +17.5%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.5%

Guangxi Hengchen (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nanjing City face Guangxi Hengchen in China - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nanjing City a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Guangxi Hengchen 38%, so Guangxi Hengchen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Nanjing City and 1.3 for Guangxi Hengchen (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nanjing City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.22 for Guangxi Hengchen. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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