Today / China - League One / Dongguan United vs Shenzhen Juniors

Dongguan United vs Shenzhen Juniors Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:30

Dongguan United

PPG 0.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Shenzhen Juniors

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-19.2%0-210.1%0-37.3%0-4+6.7%1 1-04.1%1-19.0%1-29.9%1-37.2%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.0%2-14.4%2-24.8%2-33.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.7%3-11.5%3-21.6%3-31.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.3% 26.3% 3.80 -27.4%

Draw 21.1% 29.4% 3.40 -17.0%

Away win 64.6% 54.6% 1.83 +18.2%

Over 2.5 62.0% 56.5% 1.77 +9.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 34.5% 2.90 +14.0%

BTTS 54.4% 60.6% 1.65 -10.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 34.7% 2.88 -11.0%

Away O1.5 60.4% 55.6% 1.80 +8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob54.4%

A 65% / xG 1.0-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.1%

#2 1–2✓ 9.9%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 0–3 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dongguan United1.0

Shenzhen Juniors2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DONGGUAN UNITED · PPG 0.20

SHENZHEN JUNIORS · PPG 1.70

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.20 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Dongguan United (H) 14.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -27.4%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -17.0%

Shenzhen Juniors (A) 64.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dongguan United face Shenzhen Juniors in China - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dongguan United a 14% chance, the draw 21% and Shenzhen Juniors 65%, so Shenzhen Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dongguan United and 2.2 for Shenzhen Juniors (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dongguan United are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 1.70 for Shenzhen Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Dongguan United vs Shenzhen Juniors Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions