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Ningbo Professional vs Yanbian Longding Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

Ningbo Professional

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Yanbian Longding

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-112.7%0-28.2%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.0%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.2%2-16.7%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 43.5% 2.30 -28.7%

Draw 26.6% 35.1% 2.85 -14.5%

Away win 42.4% 31.3% 3.20 +35.7%

Over 2.5 50.1% 43.5% 2.30 +15.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 23.8% 4.20 +10.8%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 40.8% 2.45 -25.0%

Away O1.5 38.4% 32.3% 3.10 +19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ningbo Professional1.0

Yanbian Longding1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NINGBO PROFESSIONAL · PPG 1.44

YANBIAN LONGDING · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.27, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ningbo Professional (H) 31.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -28.7%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -14.5%

Yanbian Longding (A) 42.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +35.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ningbo Professional face Yanbian Longding in China - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ningbo Professional a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Yanbian Longding 42%, so Yanbian Longding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ningbo Professional and 1.3 for Yanbian Longding (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ningbo Professional are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.75 for Yanbian Longding. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +37.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Ningbo Professional vs Yanbian Longding Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions