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Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou E-Power Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Meizhou Kejia

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Guangzhou E-Power

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-19.4%0-210.7%0-38.2%0-4+8.0%1 1-03.7%1-18.5%1-29.7%1-37.4%1-4+7.2%2 2-01.7%2-13.9%2-24.4%2-33.4%2-4+3.3%3 3-00.5%3-11.2%3-21.3%3-31.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 18.2% 5.50 -14.5%

Draw 22.3% 26.0% 3.85 -8.5%

Away win 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.5% 2.60 -4.8%

BTTS 54.3% 59.9% 1.67 -9.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

Away O1.5 65.4% 64.5% 1.55 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob54.3%

A 64% / xG 0.9-2.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 0–2 10.7%

#3 1–2 9.7%

#4 0–3 8.2%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meizhou Kejia0.9

Guangzhou E-Power2.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MEIZHOU KEJIA · PPG 1.11

GUANGZHOU E-POWER · PPG 2.22

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.38 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Meizhou Kejia (H) 13.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -14.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.5%

Guangzhou E-Power (A) 63.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meizhou Kejia face Guangzhou E-Power in China - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meizhou Kejia a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Guangzhou E-Power 64%, so Guangzhou E-Power are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Meizhou Kejia and 2.3 for Guangzhou E-Power (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 2.22 for Guangzhou E-Power. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 1-5.

Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou E-Power Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions