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Ningbo Professional vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:00

Ningbo Professional

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Meizhou Kejia

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+13.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.6%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.9%1-110.5%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.4%3-16.2%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Draw 23.2% 32.3% 3.10 -16.9%

Away win 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 52.6% 1.90 +13.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 30.8% 3.25 +19.3%

BTTS 55.0% 58.8% 1.70 -6.5%

Home O1.5 56.3% 54.6% 1.83 +3.0%

Away O1.5 26.8% 30.8% 3.25 -7.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 1–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ningbo Professional1.9

Meizhou Kejia1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NINGBO PROFESSIONAL · PPG 1.30

MEIZHOU KEJIA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ningbo Professional (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +1.4%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.9%

Meizhou Kejia (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ningbo Professional face Meizhou Kejia in China - League One on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ningbo Professional a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Meizhou Kejia 24%, so Ningbo Professional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ningbo Professional and 1.0 for Meizhou Kejia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ningbo Professional are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.00 for Meizhou Kejia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Ningbo Professional vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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