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Shenzhen Juniors vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Shenzhen Juniors

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Nanjing City

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-110.5%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.5%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.9%2-17.5%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-13.0%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 55.6% 1.80 -18.3%

Draw 31.9% 31.3% 3.20 +2.1%

Away win 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Over 2.5 36.8% 55.6% 1.80 -33.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% 33.3% 3.00 -27.2%

BTTS 43.6% 57.1% 1.75 -23.7%

Home O1.5 32.4% 57.8% 1.73 -44.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 28.6% 3.50 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 0–0 15.3%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen Juniors1.2

Nanjing City0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN JUNIORS · PPG 1.78

NANJING CITY · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen Juniors (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -18.3%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.1%

Nanjing City (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen Juniors face Nanjing City in China - League One on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen Juniors a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Nanjing City 23%, so Shenzhen Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Shenzhen Juniors and 0.7 for Nanjing City (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen Juniors are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.67 for Nanjing City. This match finished 3-1.

Shenzhen Juniors vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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