Today / China - League One / Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding

Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Shaanxi Union

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Yanbian Longding

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.9%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.9%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.0%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.2%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 54.1% 1.85 -29.0%

Draw 26.7% 29.9% 3.35 -6.3%

Away win 34.9% 26.3% 3.80 +32.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.9% 3.35 -2.3%

BTTS 52.7% 56.5% 1.77 -6.7%

Home O1.5 32.7% 51.3% 1.95 -36.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 31.3% 3.20 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shaanxi Union1.2

Yanbian Longding1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAANXI UNION · PPG 2.12

YANBIAN LONGDING · PPG 1.89

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shaanxi Union (H) 38.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -29.0%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.3%

Yanbian Longding (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shaanxi Union face Yanbian Longding in China - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shaanxi Union a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Yanbian Longding 35%, so Shaanxi Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Shaanxi Union and 1.0 for Yanbian Longding (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shaanxi Union are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.89 for Yanbian Longding. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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