Leagues / CHILE / Primera División
Primera División
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 80 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
38.8%
1X2
31/80
55.0%
O/U 2.5
44/80
56.2%
BTTS
45/80
31.2%
Exact score
25/80
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
40
Settled
57.5%
Hit rate
23/40
1.85
Avg odds
+3.0%
ROI
+1.2u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=20 70.0% HIT · AVG 1.86 · +28.6% ROI
HOME WIN · N=7 42.9% HIT · AVG 1.84 · -17.7% ROI
BTTS · N=7 28.6% HIT · AVG 1.76 · -50.4% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.61 · +24.6% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 3.35 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-40.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
12
Bets
75%
Hit
+33.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
22
Bets
50%
Hit
-9.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
3
Bets
67%
Hit
+16.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 3 PICKS · 2 HIT · 1 MISS
3 SEPT Deportes Limache vs Nublense Over 2.5 +8% 2–0 MISS2 SEPT Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion Home -12% 1–0 HIT1 SEPT U. Catolica vs O'Higgins HO1.5 3–2 HITAugust 2026 // 11 PICKS · 6 HIT · 5 MISS
31 AUG Union La Calera vs D. La Serena Over 2.5 -3% 0–1 MISS30 AUG Nublense vs Concepción BTTS +11% 0–1 MISS30 AUG Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile — NO PICK 2–1 —30 AUG Colo Colo vs A. Italiano HO1.5 5–1 HIT29 AUG Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina Over 2.5 +10% 0–3 HIT28 AUG Cobresal vs Palestino Over 2.5 +8% 2–0 MISS26 AUG Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica BTTS +1% 1–2 HIT24 AUG Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion Home -4% 3–1 HIT23 AUG U. Catolica vs Nublense HO1.5 1–2 MISS23 AUG Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido Over 2.5 +5% 1–1 MISS23 AUG D. La Serena vs Cobresal HO1.5 3–3 HIT23 AUG Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo BTTS -10% 1–2 HIT